I was watching Newsnight on Monday 29 September when the penny dropped.
There was "only one story in town" and the dramatic graphic showed how the stock market had tanked. The American $700bn bailout plan had been rejected. Republicans had taken offence at what the Democratic speaker had said, apparently, and voted against the bill. Take that! So the markets did, and plummeted.
It was then that I thought, this is serious and it is real, not just a stock market thing. What started out as the (American) Sub-Prime crisis became the Credit Crunch (good name, that), then more gloomily the Downturn. Now most people are invoking the R-word despite the fact that it is not (technically) a Recession. Yet.

Is this the best branded and most talked about downturn (or whatever) since the Great Depression? (pic by axb500)
Are we talking ourselves into the biggest recession since the last biggest recession? The little that we know about markets is that they depend on confidence. Confidence is a conversation. Does that mean that if we ignore it and talk about something else it will go away?
Or is this a necessary and inevitable correction? Greed can only be sustained for so long before it gives in to its alter ego, fear.
While on a moralising theme, it strikes me that ignorance has also played its part. The money men constructed products (‘instruments’) SO complicated that even they did not understand them. Bad debts were bundled up and sold on several times over. Not so much passing the buck as passing the WTF.
The IMF have estimated that the US sub-prime meltdown will cost $945bn. That’s nearly one trillion dollars. And that’s just an estimate. The fact is, NOBODY KNOWS. The American politicians who voted against surely did not understand the markets. Now Governments do not know how to stop it.
Who do you blame for this mess? The media? Banks? Americans? Financial regulators? Maybe we are all complicit. We are certainly all involved, now. It feels as if we have passed the tipping point, the point where it was only a stock market/financial problem. Now it is starting to affect the real economy. Or is it?
We reckon that the situation is patchy and changeable; some regions and some sectors in the UK are affected much more than others. And our colleagues abroad are giving us very different accounts of the collective mood in, for example, Germany and Russia. So the downturn is NOT affecting everyone equally.
So, there will be winners and losers. The only certainty in all this uncertainty, now that the genie is out of the bottle, is that a great many more clichés are on their way.
How to respond? Take your pick, batten down the hatches and tighten your belts, or, face the music and dance.